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Old 02-22-2013, 03:22 AM   #16
TheMelkMan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Longtimer View Post
China is NOT Japan and this is not the 1980's. The China population is four and a half that of the US and for the first time in China history, the majority lives in cities. Manufacturing is the highest growth industry in China. Manufacturing is a receding industry in the US. This is NOT a coincidence.

I've travelled to the same four locations in China four times in the last 6 years. The changes are astounding - difficult to believe even seeing them. Four lane roads / parkways travelled on the first trip that were nearly empty but for some small scooter/tractor type vehicles were clogged a year later and were doubled in width a year after that. Last trip they were widened again but full of traffic. Our drive took twice as long as in that first year.

Car dealerships were nearly non-existent in these areas on the first trip. They now line that same road similar to any city in the US.

It is still a communist government. Wages are designated by the government to be higher while conditions are improving and OT rules getting tighter. 80 hours / week was the norm 6 years ago, now more than 60 is illegal and enforcement is unpredictable with spotty corruption.

A citizen must apply for and receive a permit to move to another city, but the workers jump jobs as frequently as wages rise. A manager of a plant where a worker was killed in an unsafe situation, is taken by the government and not heard from again.

We closed our US manufacturing sites in 2003 and 2004 because they could not compete with the manufacturing costs in China and our customers demanded China pricing that they could get from our competitors with more China factories. This month we announced the closing of our European manufacturing site for the same reason. Our China footprint is five times what it was in 2003.

Don't misunderstand, I am not endorsing the Youtube comments.

However, this is not paranoia. This is the business trend in today's world.

Yeah, but all of that is a result of our terribly myopic trade policies for the last 30 years... it's not some sort of GM-Chinese conspiracy. The fact that GM is trying to sell more cars to China is not in and of itself a bad thing.
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Old 02-22-2013, 12:45 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMelkMan View Post
Yeah, but all of that is a result of our terribly myopic trade policies for the last 30 years... it's not some sort of GM-Chinese conspiracy. The fact that GM is trying to sell more cars to China is not in and of itself a bad thing.
I completely agree about our myopic trade policy, and that there is no GM-Chinese conspiracy.

However, there IS a conspiracy / set of goals the Chinese government is pursuing that, if successful, will ruin the US standard of living. They target certain industries and then build hundreds of millions of square feet sites to employ a workforce that is much cheaper than the US, European and even most of South American workforce. They are stealing industry segments and become the dominant volume producers in the world. This is the power of a Communist Economic Plan.

As long as the China population continues to improve its standard of living, this will continue. With a population of more than 1.4 BILLION, this could continue for the next 100 years.
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Old 02-22-2013, 03:15 PM   #18
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...there is a writing by a Japanese lecturer that commented on
retaliation against the U.S. after the bombings (not sure if I
have it 100%) being "the way to defeat the enemy is too
control their economy" but it seems both Japan & China are
doing very well at doing just that.....
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Old 02-22-2013, 06:24 PM   #19
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As long as the China population continues to improve its standard of living, this will continue. With a population of more than 1.4 BILLION, this could continue for the next 100 years.
It's true that China has seen explosive economic growth over the last few decades. They have done very well for themselves, but when you read stories like this: (BBC link) and hear about smog so thick you can't see past your own nose... you realize it comes with a price. I'm not so sure it can continue for 100 years. I think the Chinese people are slowly starting to realize that they may be shooting themselves in the foot by having an economy that is so dependent on cheap manufacturing.

China's economy is producing a lot of wealth, but who's really benefiting? Think about it. If you have unregulated industry and pay your people slave wages to cheaply produce widgets for the rest of the world, and then you ship those widgets out of the country... what are you left with? You're the one who gets the pollution and paper currency, while a foreign country gets the benefit of the finished good.

Because of this, not only does China have alarming levels of pollution, but their central bank has HUGE reserves of paper currency (mostly US dollars and euros). They have more US dollars in reserve than what is currently in circulation in the entire US economy, while the US Federal Reserve has almost eight times the amount of gold reserves as the People's Bank of China. Who do you think is in the better position? A central bank with $3+ trillion in foreign currency and 1,000 tons of gold, or a central bank with $0.15 trillion in foreign currency and more than 8,000 tons of gold? Gold makes up more than 75% of our central bank reserves, while it makes up less than 2% of China's reserves. The People's Bank of China has also been artificially devaluing their own currency in order to bolster their exports and keep manufacturing costs low, which has the unintended consequence of creating double-digit inflation for the Chinese people.

I'm not convinced that the Chinese economic model is really all that smart or in any way sustainable. Double-digit GDP growth becomes more and more difficult as you grow into an economic superpower. They're going to have to transition their economy away from being so dependent on cheap manufacturing, lest they continue to poison their population and suffer hyperinflation. It's not all rainbows and sunshine for the Chinese, they have plenty of problems of their own.
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Old 02-22-2013, 07:50 PM   #20
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There is no model, there are models that can be adopeted fairly quickly versus the Western methods. Because of the number of people, and the abject poverty of nearly half the population, I don't think "rainbows and sunshine" is the goal for the masses - just opportunities for a better life than we in the US had 150 years ago, for most of their population.

Being a communist government enables controls over their "unregulated industry" that do not exist in the Western world. They have the ability to change strategies and directions. They recently adopted Western-type pollution regulations that will be adhered to much more quickly and uniformly than in the Western culture.

Please don't misunderstand my point of view. I believe there is no better country, nor economic environment than in the US - IF protected properly. However, the world is too small today and the improvements in the standard of living for 1.4 Billion people comes at a cost to the rest of the world's consumers, including us.
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Old 02-22-2013, 08:33 PM   #21
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I don't disagree. They've definitely been trying to improve their environmental regulations, but that also means increased production costs and a less competitive manufacturing sector, which creates a challenge for them since their economy is so dependent on manufacturing. I've also read that corruption is a big problem in China, and apparently it's not unheard of for government officials to accept a bribe for turning a blind eye to environmental violations.

My basic point is that while we may have plenty of problems in this country when it comes to trade and manufacturing, I don't think those problems are insurmountable or that the situation is quite as dire as most people seem to believe.
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Old 02-23-2013, 04:22 AM   #22
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Wow... You mean the Internet is not all facts? Lol Duh... This site is on the Internet, plenty of facts here. Heck, 7 out of 10 GM cars built outside the US... A large GM headquarters in china,.., parts at your local dealer say made in china.... Ah, your right, it's all in my head.... Lol
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Old 02-23-2013, 05:40 AM   #23
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Heck, 7 out of 10 GM cars built outside the US...
This may come as a huge surprise to you, but the reason a majority of GM vehicles are built outside the US is because a majority of GM vehicles are sold outside the US. If you're going to be selling a lot of cars in a certain region, it makes sense to build factories at that location in order to avoid any import tariffs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by T.M. View Post
A large GM headquarters in china
Do you know who else has a major headquarters in China? Ford, Volkswagen, Toyota, Fiat, and pretty much every other auto maker. Do you think it would make good business sense for GM to just ignore that entire market and leave it to all the other major manufactures?
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Old 02-23-2013, 09:26 AM   #24
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It's not a huge surprise to me. But the numbers are shifting more all the time, especially the past few years.

Yeah, other company's have headquarters, but I'm not talking about them. So the original question, how far will it go? Will GM end up china motors? China pimping it. !
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Old 02-23-2013, 03:44 PM   #25
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It's not a huge surprise to me. But the numbers are shifting more all the time, especially the past few years.

Yeah, other company's have headquarters, but I'm not talking about them. So the original question, how far will it go? Will GM end up china motors? China pimping it. !
No, never gonna happen, because while China might be great at building things (The Great Wall), they can't design for shit (it's still just a freaking wall)

Especially with Corvettes, since the vast majority of them are sold in the U.S. it only makes sense to build them here.
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Old 02-24-2013, 12:10 AM   #26
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China is a threat

But they're not the U.S.A.

The primary source of China's technical, manufacturing and engineering success is THEFT. And as their society enjoys the first fruits of partial freedom and consequent economic success (accelerated by THEFT), the playing field is leveling. ALREADY, some manufacturing jobs are returning to the U.S.

And that trend will continue.

But we forget the origin of this thread was the absurd proposition that China was going to takeover G.M. -- Supported by the equally absurd proposition that the U.S. government bailout of G.M. and Chrysler was a horrific failure (huh?).

At this writing we are all enjoying very active discourse on the amazing C7 Stingray and the only somewhat less amazing new Viper...

Neither of which would have had a PRAYER of existence (much less commercial success) without the bailout--demonstrably one of the smartest investments the American Taxpayer has ever made...

I look forward to Chinese buying a lot of both Dodges and Chevys...
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Old 02-24-2013, 12:20 AM   #27
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Only 77 posts...

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...you need to cut him some slack, he's only got 77 posts...
Incomplete... 77 posts PLUS... an L-72 roadster (factory side pipes, knock offs). Past owner of a '66 big block-36 gallon tank, '67 air conditioned small block roadster, '69 roadster, and '78 Silver Anniversary...
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Old 02-24-2013, 11:51 AM   #28
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Kewl. I like chinese food.
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Old 02-25-2013, 02:22 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Longtimer View Post
China is NOT Japan and this is not the 1980's. The China population is four and a half that of the US and for the first time in China history, the majority lives in cities. Manufacturing is the highest growth industry in China. Manufacturing is a receding industry in the US. This is NOT a coincidence.

I've travelled to the same four locations in China four times in the last 6 years. The changes are astounding - difficult to believe even seeing them. Four lane roads / parkways travelled on the first trip that were nearly empty but for some small scooter/tractor type vehicles were clogged a year later and were doubled in width a year after that. Last trip they were widened again but full of traffic. Our drive took twice as long as in that first year.

Car dealerships were nearly non-existent in these areas on the first trip. They now line that same road similar to any city in the US.

It is still a communist government. Wages are designated by the government to be higher while conditions are improving and OT rules getting tighter. 80 hours / week was the norm 6 years ago, now more than 60 is illegal and enforcement is unpredictable with spotty corruption.

A citizen must apply for and receive a permit to move to another city, but the workers jump jobs as frequently as wages rise. A manager of a plant where a worker was killed in an unsafe situation, is taken by the government and not heard from again.

We closed our US manufacturing sites in 2003 and 2004 because they could not compete with the manufacturing costs in China and our customers demanded China pricing that they could get from our competitors with more China factories. This month we announced the closing of our European manufacturing site for the same reason. Our China footprint is five times what it was in 2003.

Don't misunderstand, I am not endorsing the Youtube comments.

However, this is not paranoia. This is the business trend in today's world.
Obviously, China is not Japan and this is not the 1980's....however, the similarities of then and now are real and cannot be ignored. At some point, the piper must be paid in China (environmental concerns/worker's rights/etc) and then, just like with Japan, the field will level out. Japan had the same reputation in the 1950's/1960's as China does now (cheap labor/questionable quality of products). When the correction occurs, which, IMO, will happen in the next 2 decades, I wonder who will take that the place of China today (Korea, Indonesia, etc)? Let's not forget that it is AMERICAN companies that are driving much of the demand for cheap Chinease goods (Walmart, for one).

"Those who ignore history are destined to repeat it"

Jimmy
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Old 02-25-2013, 06:27 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmyb View Post
Obviously, China is not Japan and this is not the 1980's....however, the similarities of then and now are real and cannot be ignored. At some point, the piper must be paid in China (environmental concerns/worker's rights/etc) and then, just like with Japan, the field will level out. Japan had the same reputation in the 1950's/1960's as China does now (cheap labor/questionable quality of products). When the correction occurs, which, IMO, will happen in the next 2 decades, I wonder who will take that the place of China today (Korea, Indonesia, etc)? Let's not forget that it is AMERICAN companies that are driving much of the demand for cheap Chinease goods (Walmart, for one).

"Those who ignore history are destined to repeat it"

Jimmy
We'll have to agree to disagree. IMO China will continue to steal Manufacturing jobs from the rest of the world for decades - at a minimum. Yes their costs are going up, but remember they started at $.19 / hour. Even today and over the next several years, it will still be a lot lower than US wages.

Many Electronics firms have built manufacturing facilities in Viet Nam and Malaysia, others in Hungary. However, the China government continues to support this area of manufacturing, making facilities cheap to state supported plants.
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