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Old 11-08-2012, 12:08 PM   #1
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Advice for the Republicans in 2016

One of the best movie clips of all time...just one word...demographics!


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Old 11-08-2012, 01:06 PM   #2
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Sean Trende, who is probably the best election analyst going, has analyzed the numbers as available today. He says it is crystal clear that Obama won, not because his base came out -- 3 million fewer people voted for him than in 2008 -- but because white voters stayed home -- 7 million fewer whites voted than in 2008. He has a few guesses why, but it will take more time and poll analysis to be sure. He did find that urban and suburban whites voted in about the same numbers as 2008. The big drop was in rural America. He thinks maybe it's a combination of negative advertising in the swing states and the necessity for Romney to slip to the right in the primaries and back left for the general. Bottom line - he doesn't yet see a permanent Dem coalition. Interesting article.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...rs_116106.html
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Old 11-08-2012, 01:37 PM   #3
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but because white voters stayed home -- 7 million fewer whites voted than in 2008.
7 million fewer whites = I could not vote for a Mormon
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Old 11-08-2012, 01:46 PM   #4
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7 million fewer whites = I could not vote for a Mormon
What about the felling of dispare and my vote doesn't matter thinggy ..

In my heart I don't believe being a Mormon had anything to do with it

I really think alot more people have given up that the President of the United States matters anymore. All last week when I found people who didn't vote said this. I would respond has there been a difference in our country in the last 4 years better or worse? They would repond well yes there is a difference, so I would again say So there was a difference between BWB and Obama so why would you not think there would be a differece between Obama and Romney..I would then get the look
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Old 11-08-2012, 01:52 PM   #5
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I blame Bush.
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Extreme taxation, excessive controls, oppressive government competition with business, frustrated minorities and forgotten Americans are not the products of free enterprise. They are the residue of centralized bureaucracy, of government by a self-anointed elite. - Ronald Reagan
Old 11-08-2012, 02:00 PM   #6
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7 million fewer whites = I could not vote for a Mormon
I live deep in the Bible Belt. I am around evangelicals all the time. I never even heard discussion of Romney's Mormonism. I think that concept is a concoction of liberals that have no idea how religious people think. I think it is much more likely that many rural whites in swing states were swayed by the barrage of advertising. Rural whites are doing very poorly in the recession, and highlighting Romney's wealth might be a way to sour rural whites on his candidacy.
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:04 PM   #7
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I blame Bush.


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Old 11-08-2012, 02:08 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by Texdentist View Post
Sean Trende, who is probably the best election analyst going, has analyzed the numbers as available today. He says it is crystal clear that Obama won, not because his base came out -- 3 million fewer people voted for him than in 2008 -- but because white voters stayed home -- 7 million fewer whites voted than in 2008. He has a few guesses why, but it will take more time and poll analysis to be sure. He did find that urban and suburban whites voted in about the same numbers as 2008. The big drop was in rural America. He thinks maybe it's a combination of negative advertising in the swing states and the necessity for Romney to slip to the right in the primaries and back left for the general. Bottom line - he doesn't yet see a permanent Dem coalition. Interesting article.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...rs_116106.html
I said in an earlier post that Romney lost cause he pissed off to many people. He never had the black vote,he pissed off the Hispanic vote and they turned out in droves and he pissed off the union people then for shits and giggles he pissed off the Washington DC metro area which is gov./military. To many people pissed off ,no way to win
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:22 PM   #9
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I live deep in the Bible Belt. I am around evangelicals all the time. I never even heard discussion of Romney's Mormonism. I think that concept is a concoction of liberals that have no idea how religious people think. I think it is much more likely that many rural whites in swing states were swayed by the barrage of advertising. Rural whites are doing very poorly in the recession, and highlighting Romney's wealth might be a way to sour rural whites on his candidacy.
Wow..that is encouraging to hear that evangelicals think that way. So that means there is a chance for Michael Bloomberg (a Jew) to run for President and be elected. And if not Bloomberg, maybe Bruce Springstein.
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:48 PM   #10
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Wow..that is encouraging to hear that evangelicals think that way. So that means there is a chance for Michael Bloomberg (a Jew) to run for President and be elected. And if not Bloomberg, maybe Bruce Springstein.
Well, there IS a difference. Mormons are nominally Christians. So evenagelicals can identify with them. But honestly, being Jewish would not have the impact it had 40 years ago. On the other hand, if a candidate were Jewish, wouldn't it be highly likely he would be running as a Democrat?
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:54 PM   #11
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I said in an earlier post that Romney lost cause he pissed off to many people. He never had the black vote,he pissed off the Hispanic vote and they turned out in droves and he pissed off the union people then for shits and giggles he pissed off the Washington DC metro area which is gov./military. To many people pissed off ,no way to win
Face it. Romney was never going to get the black vote, hispanic vote or the union vote. Remember that little 47% debacle. He was talking about the people he was never going to attract and the fact he wasn't going to waste resources on them. He was correct in his strategy as far as that point. He needed an all-out white turn-out, and he didn't get it -- I think probably due to his wealth more than anything. Middle class whites just couldn't identify with him.
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Old 11-08-2012, 03:23 PM   #12
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.....He needed an all-out white turn-out.....
Dick Morris was saying something similar. If the Republican party keeps hoping that the "white vote" is going to propel them into the White House they will constantly find themselves in the same position they are now, WISHING they were in the White House. The demographic of the country has changed. And don't tell me that all minorities are in the "47%"...there are plenty of successful ones and it appears they voted for Obama too, overwhelmingly. So embrace the new landscape and evolve or become extinct.
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Old 11-08-2012, 03:34 PM   #13
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Dick Morris was saying something similar. If the Republican party keeps hoping that the "white vote" is going to propel them into the White House they will constantly find themselves in the same position they are now, WISHING they were in the White House. The demographic of the country has changed. And don't tell me that all minorities are in the "47%"...there are plenty of successful ones and it appears they voted for Obama too, overwhelmingly. So embrace the new landscape and evolve or become extinct.
I agree completely. I have been saying for years that the GOP was wrong-headed in it's approach to illegal immigration. George Bush got it, and it helped him get elected. There needs to be a rational plan with emotion left at the door that will make a sensible path to citizenship for those already here - especially those who were brought here by parents. I believe that other than immigration, Hispanics have a natural better fit with the GOP which is high on family values, hard work and self sufficiency. The GOP will never attract more than a few percent of blacks, and nothing can change that. The only problem with moving to the left on immigration issues is that no matter how far the Pubs move the left, Dems will stay to their left by proposing even more liberal policies. But I would like to see the GOP get real about this issue.

P.S. Dick Morris? I normally think the guy is very smart. But he predicted a landslide for Romney with 330 electoral votes. Uh-Oh.
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Old 11-08-2012, 03:41 PM   #14
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P.S. Dick Morris? I normally think the guy is very smart. But he predicted a landslide for Romney with 330 electoral votes. Uh-Oh.
He's got egg in his face and he's admitted it.

His calculations assumed turnout like 2010. He overestimated white voter turnout, they didn't show up, and underestimated liberal turnout. Although liberal turnout was lower than 2008, it was still higher than he expected this year.

That said, it sucks to be him right now.
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Old 11-08-2012, 03:44 PM   #15
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He's got egg in his face and he's admitted it.

His calculations assumed turnout like 2010. He overestimated white voter turnout, they didn't show up, and underestimated liberal turnout. Although liberal turnout was lower than 2008, it was still higher than he expected this year.

That said, it sucks to be him right now.
He also underestimated the minority turn out. The Republicans better find a way to broaden that tent...for real...or, like I said, become largely irrelevant.
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