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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
But there is an unmistakable sense among Republicans that the breezy predictions of Obama turning out to be the next Jimmy Carter were premature.

“The people that are sitting around saying, ‘He’s definitely going to be a one-term president. It’s going to be easy to take him out,’ they’re obviously political illiterates – political idiots, let me be blunt,” said former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in an interview

:laughing:

That would be you tools.....:laughing: :nuts: :laughing:



http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/50...uX2hlYWRsaW5lX2xpc3QEc2xrA2FuYWx5c2lzb2JhbQ--

Just four months after posting historic election gains, Republicans are experiencing a reality check about 2012: President Barack Obama is going to be a lot tougher to defeat than he looked late last year.

Having gone from despondency in 2008 to euphoria last November, a more sober GOP is wincing in the light of day as they consider just how difficult unseating an incumbent president with a massive warchest is going to be, even with a still-dismal economy.

“I consider him a favorite, albeit a slight favorite,” said former George W. Bush adviser Karl Rove. “Republicans underestimate President Obama at their own peril.”

Much of the GOP realism is rooted in a long-standing truism of American politics – that absent a major crisis of confidence, it’s highly difficult to defeat a sitting president.

But aside from the traditional advantages of incumbency, Republicans are also fretting about the strength of Obama’s campaign infrastructure, the potential limitations of their own field and, particularly, the same demographic weaknesses that haunted them in 2008.

[ For complete coverage of politics and policy, go to Yahoo! Politics ]


The best indicator of the GOP outlook on 2012 may be the shape of the party’s prospective field. Many of the contenders who can afford to sit out a presidential election cycle and wait for an open-seat race – Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush come to mind – seem intent on doing so.

The view among senior Republicans is not that Obama is a sure bet or that the GOP nomination is not worth having. Many are convinced 2012 will be more competitive than 2008 and that the White House can still be won.

But there is an unmistakable sense among Republicans that the breezy predictions of Obama turning out to be the next Jimmy Carter were premature.

“The people that are sitting around saying, ‘He’s definitely going to be a one-term president. It’s going to be easy to take him out,’ they’re obviously political illiterates – political idiots, let me be blunt,” said former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in an interview.

Some of those in the GOP, like Huckabee, who have considered or are considering a run are candid about the enormity of the challenge they’ll face, pointing to Obama’s potent political organization and the inherent power of the presidency.

“You just don’t go against a billion-dollar mountain of money, a guy who’s already won the presidency once – but he gets to fly in on Air Force One and make all his campaign stops with the trappings of the office,” said the Arkansan.

Others mulling a White House pointed to Obama’s response to what the president himself called the midterm “shellacking.”

Thune, who said last week that he wouldn’t seek the GOP nomination next year, praised Obama as a “very shrewd politician” to the Associated Press, noting that the president had moved the middle by supporting the extension of the Bush-era tax cuts.

“As I observed his response and reaction to the midterm election, that was all part of my assessment of the landscape,” Thune said. “Any incumbent is a tough race, and he’s no exception. I think he’s got plenty of vulnerabilities, but I also observed how adept politically he was.”

While noting it was still early in the campaign, Christie highlighted another unmatched advantage Obama enjoys.

“He proved he could win once, so that’s one more time than anybody else who has run,” said the first-term New Jersey governor.

Then there are the structural advantages that helped lift Obama three years ago. Even as the GOP benefited last fall from what many independent voters saw as the president’s initial overreach, they still face nagging difficulties at the polls with minority voters and youths.

“The electorate will look much different in 2012 than it did in 2010,” said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), who was a political operative for decades before coming to Congress. “It’s going to be younger, browner, and more to the left.”

The problem for Republicans is most acute among Hispanics, a pivotal bloc of the electorate in must-have Florida and the West.

“Republicans cannot afford to lose the Latino vote by 30%+ as they did in 2008,” read the slide headline on a 2012 polling presentation sent out last week by the GOP survey research firm Public Opinion Strategies.

Whit Ayres, a longtime GOP pollster with his own firm, said that the most discouraging piece of data for the party ahead of 2012 is the GOP’s difficulty with Hispanic voters.

“If we lose the fastest-growing, largest minority group like we lost them in 2008, it’s going to be pretty tough in places like Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona,” observed Ayres.

But Ayres and other Republicans pointed out that there were also some numbers on their side – namely sustained joblessness and the sense among voters that the country is on the wrong track.

“He’s going to have to win re-election with historically high unemployment,” said Cole.

The congressman said that if Obama does win he would likely break from recent historical precedent by getting re-elected with a narrower margin than what he first received upon winning the White House.

“It’s hard to see him running as strongly in places like Indiana and Ohio,” said the Oklahoman, citing two states the president won in 2008.

But Obama won’t be running in a vacuum and even before the Republicans likely to run formally launch their campaigns, party members are grumbling about their options in the typical way: by openly pining for others to get in the race

“Jeb’s opening is now,” wrote National Review editor Rich Lowry earlier this month in a much-buzzed-about column about the former Florida governor.

Candidates aside, Republicans also worry about the mechanics of their primary election season which, without winner-take-all contests early on, may continue longer than it has in recent cycles.

“Whoever the nominee is, whether it’s me or someone else, it’s going to be a short time window,” said Huckabee. “Probably no one can capture it until late spring, early summer. If that’s the case, [that’s a] shortened window to gear up for the general election, heal up the wounds from what will be a very gruesome campaign and to restock a war chest that’ll be empty by then.”

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, who is increasingly likely to run, said Obama was beatable simply because of his record. There is a distinction between how voters view the president personally and how they view his policies.

“Americans recognize bad policy that has yielded bad results,” Barbour said in an interview, noting the country’s skyrocketing debt under the incumbent.

But the Mississippian, a former RNC chair who has worked for decades in national politics, said that as the sitting president Obama would begin with an advantage.

“Incumbent presidents don’t lose very often, particularly if it’s a president who has taken over from the other party,” said Barbour.

Just once since 1896, he noted, has a sitting president lost his re-election after taking over from the opposite party four years earlier: Carter in 1980.



Yep

The GOP are gonna throw this election.:thumbsup:
 

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By the time the repub house and governors get done messing things up they know that it will take over 4 years to fix it, why would they want to win?????

:smack
 

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I disagree with a lot of what he has given as reason. Obama will not have anywhere near the funding he had in 08. The young are no longer enchanted by him... not in the numbers we witnessed prior to 08. Corp. America sees him for who he really is. We've taken the race card away from you... without that -what are you really left with ? Sure as hell isn't ideology. Proof of that is the percentage of Americans that are rallying against virtually every "cause" he rode in on... including Global Warming.

Lets face facts... he hasn't achieved one single promise made -other then Obama care. From Git-mo to Green energy... nothing. That will soon be gone as there is no majority support for it in either ideologies... and is being contested daily. So... what are you left with ? His die hard supporters. ...and even they are waning.



Will it be "easy"... -no. It never is. Even with the likes of Carter. But... you go right on ahead and keep underestimating the party. :thumbsup:
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
I disagree with a lot of what he has given as reason. Obama will not have anywhere near the funding he had in 08. The young are no longer enchanted by him... not in the numbers we witnessed prior to 08. Corp. America sees him for who he really is. We've taken the race card away from you... without that -what are you really left with ? Sure as hell isn't ideology. Proof of that is the percentage of Americans that are rallying against virtually every "cause" he rode in on... including Global Warming.

Lets face facts... he hasn't achieved one single promise made -other then Obama care. From Git-mo to Green energy... nothing. That will soon be gone as there is no majority support for it in either ideologies... and is being contested daily. So... what are you left with ? His die hard supporters. ...and even they are waning.



Will it be "easy"... -no. It never is. Even with the likes of Carter. But... you go right on ahead and keep underestimating the party. :thumbsup:
Weird.

Rasmussen just gave him 58 percent approval last week...:huh:


The race card will be in effect untill he leaves office, and the racists move on to other topics to bitch about.

Global warming?
Young voters?
Corp America?

well.....

He never lost the young unracist voters, who clearly see corps shitting on the man...
American peep will be quic to realize that global warming /green energy created jobs and pubs are defunding it,
Corps always knew who he was from the beginning, and if they stood to gain or loose,

And now with pubs attacking the middle class, elderly, and retirees for spending cuts, instead of attacking the abundant low hanging fruit and pork..... while they defund the stimulus, bank regulations, and enviromental regulations....

It's just gonna be a easy hat trick.
Timing is perfect.
GOP house, and district control.......unemployment climbing suddenly in 36 states.

:thumbsup:
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
And the approaching govt shutdown will sway voters more, like it did during the Clinton admin.
:thumbsup:

Keep up the good work.










Better spin up that propaganda fear n smear, race hate machine run by Koch bros, Palin and Fox......asap.....:thumbsup:
 

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I am not one of those tools who has been predicting an easy GOP win in 2012. Not the least of their worries is that they don't yet have a compelling candidate. Obama does have problems. His approval hasn't been near 58 in the last several months. He has done a good job of holding his own in the high 40's. I think it's going to come down to what, if any, big events are playing out in summer and fall 2012. If there are big events working against Obama, he could lose. If the economy is surging and wars and terrorism are momentarily quiet, he could easily win. This one is too close to call almost two years out. :cheers:
 

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The GOP will run some middle-of-the-road roadkill in a half hearted effort and probably get steamrolled by the obamamaniamedia express.. :laughing:
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
I still think the pubs are better off with the state/district seating.
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
The GOP will run some middle-of-the-road roadkill in a half hearted effort and probably get steamrolled by the obamamaniamedia express.. :laughing:
:agree:

....and then they'll call it a mercy killing and do the circular firing squad to the poor soul....:laughing:
 

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I've been watching the GOP candidate race pretty closely, and if this were a bicycle race, Newt Gingrich would have been drafting the leader for the last few miles and making his move to take the lead. I think Newt is in his "now or never" moment when he makes a big push to clean up his image and make a race for the front. I don't think he has a chance in hell of doing it, but maybe people under 40 just don't know that much about his history. We'll see. Right now, I'm liking Huckabee's position. He's getting high numbers in all of the polls and he's not even really running yet. He's not my favorite candidate, but short of a dark horse showing up, I won't be surprised if he wins the GOP race.
 

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let's look at other factors that typically bring out the Republican vote.
Marriage rights are played out, Gay benefits are gaining so that's out, abortion won't be there... no one is going to attack the elderly votes via medicare or Soc Security.. so what is left to bring out a strong republican vote to oust a Dem except for some unknown event?
 

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Really ? OK, bro. :thumbsup:
 

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let's look at other factors that typically bring out the Republican vote.
Marriage rights are played out, Gay benefits are gaining so that's out, abortion won't be there... no one is going to attack the elderly votes via medicare or Soc Security.. so what is left to bring out a strong republican vote to oust a Dem except for some unknown event?
The out party is always more motivated than the in party. That alone will work in favor of the Pubs as far as get-out-the-vote campaigns. But, as always, the election will hinge on independents. If the GOP finds a candidate that appeals to independents instead of turning them off, I think they will win. So far, I don't see a candidate that I think will excite the independents. If there is one in the candidate mix right now, I would say it would be either Huckabee or Romney - and neither is very exciting. Anybody who comes off as a Tea Party right winger will not appeal to the middle and will virtually guarantee an Obama win if they get the candidacy. I think Palin and Gingrich are in this group.
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
I'm liking Huckabee's position. He's getting high numbers in all of the polls and he's not even really running yet. He's not my favorite candidate, but short of a dark horse showing up, I won't be surprised if he wins the GOP race.
:agree:

But I think he's too smart to blow the war chest for a seat that's not open....
 

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Discussion Starter · #15 · (Edited)
The out party is always more motivated than the in party. That alone will work in favor of the Pubs as far as get-out-the-vote campaigns. But, as always, the election will hinge on independents. If the GOP finds a candidate that appeals to independents instead of turning them off, I think they will win. So far, I don't see a candidate that I think will excite the independents. .
christie...
 

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:agree:

But I think he's too smart to blow the war chest for a seat that's not open....
Yep, with no clear front runner, it's going to be a crowded field come primary time. I think Huckabee will keep his powder dry as long as he can.
 

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Really ? OK, bro. :thumbsup:
I was talking in terms of common voter turn out strategies used in the past which typically "guarantee" a high "values based" turn out-- normally this goes in favor of the republican candidate. Without a voter "values" theme-- typically there is apathy at the polls which is in favor of the incumbent.
 

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christy...
Maybe, but from what I've seen I think he's willing to tackle anything that makes sense.. This might make big $$ supporters hesitant to back him-- if they aren't sure he'll play their game when it's time.
 

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I was talking in terms of common voter turn out strategies used in the past which typically "guarantee" a high "values based" turn out-- normally this goes in favor of the republican candidate. Without a voter "values" theme-- typically there is apathy at the polls which is in favor of the incumbent.
Where were these high value basis in 08 ? Were they not present ? Are they not magnified and multiplied, today -with vastly more ammunition then we had in 08 ? The one factor we no longer have to contend with, is an anti-Bush sentiment. This, in my opinion... is the single most significant reason we have Obama as president.
 
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