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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
The 2012 election is going to be fought over how we get economic growth.

If next year the American people pull the plug on the Obama presidency, mark down the past week as the beginning of the end . . . and what looks like the real beginning of Tim Pawlenty's candidacy.

Incumbency isn't merely a function of political inevitability but of the fact that a presidency commands potent tools of self-restoration. Barack Obama's decision to kill Osama bin Laden was one such weapon. But we now see that this welcome May Surprise was insufficient to thwart the one force bigger than the American presidency—the U.S. economy. As of this week, it's looking like a long mudslide through the economy to November 2012.

The Washington Post/ABC poll out Tuesday reported that the bin Laden uptick in approval for the president has washed away already; some 59% profess disdain for the president's mishandling of the economy.

The catalyst was last Friday's depressing numbers on new job creation. Instead of the 175,000 new May jobs some economists thought they saw in their liquid crystal algorithms, only 54,000 jobs materialized in the real world. As bad, the Case-Shiller index revealed a bad housing market getting worse. Also as bad, most leading economic indicators appeared to be leading from behind. The stock market, the last redoubt of the optimists, is going south.

Austan Goolsbee, the president's top economic adviser, used the Sunday morning platforms to argue that the "variable" jobs numbers were "bumps on the road to recovery." Pro-administration analysts, including Mr. Obama himself, argued that the economy was battling tough but temporary "headwinds" such as Asian tsunamis or Midwest tornadoes that disrupt supply chains. In defense of the integrity of the government's data gatherers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics put out a statement that "We found no clear impact of the disasters on the national employment and unemployment data for May."

Barack Obama's worst week was about more than bad data. The two great legislative monuments to the first Obama term, the remaking of the health-care industry and the Dodd-Frank financial reform, look like they've got serious structural cracks. A McKinsey report estimates that a third of employers will abandon their health-insurance plans come 2014. On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that the failure (or inability) of Dodd-Frank's regulatory arm to write new rules for the $583 trillion derivatives market has the financial sector in a panic over its legal exposure.

The worst was yet to come: Mr. Goolsbee announced he was departing the White House for the irresistible pull of academic tenure. What this signifies is that Mr. Goolsbee, a reputable economist, knows that in terms of economic policy, the Obama armory is empty. From within the exclusively demand-side context of the president's economic policy, there are no more bullets in the carbines. This president is now virtually defenseless against the inexorable forces of the U.S. economy. All that's left is whatever comes of Ben Bernanke's 30 months of close-to-zero interest rates atop two Quantitative Easings, the greatest untested economics experiment in the history of the world.

No wonder Tim Pawlenty is smiling. Amid a news cycle whose message is "nothing's working," Mr. Pawlenty delivered a major speech on economic policy whose title could have been: All the Things Barack Obama Has Not Tried to Do to Lift the Economy and Never Will.

Whether Gov. Pawlenty's prescriptions—dramatically lower individual and corporate taxes, zero taxes on capital gains and dividends, sunset provisions for federal regulations and a growth-rate target of 5%—are provable as solutions is politically beside the point at this moment. As substantive brand differentiation, the Pawlenty speech was a success.

There is, however, a serious policy implication inside the Pawlenty proposals. We are heading toward an election fought over the economy. That's good because ultimately this means the subject is growth. The one consensus that exists across the political spectrum is that strong economic growth eases many problems—from the entitlement burden to the tragedy of high youth unemployment.

The battle will be fought over economic growth and how we get it—Obama's way or something close to the opposite of Obama's way. On one hand is Barack Obama's government-led "investment" mix, embedded with spending raised to 24% of GDP. On the other is the alternative GOP vision, which is starting to gel.

The Washington Post this week ran a long article to prove (and lament) that the GOP's "anti-tax orthodoxy goes deep." But why stop there? Add to this the tea party's anti-spending orthodoxy. Now virtually all Republican candidates agree that the public sector's contribution to growth is to cut spending, while tax cuts should be used to rediscover the private sector.

This "orthodoxy" informs John Boehner's insistence that any increase in the debt ceiling be matched by real spending cuts. It informs black Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain's withering, and increasingly effective, rhetorical assault on Mr. Obama's obliviousness to the needs of the private sector. Like Gov. Pawlenty, Mr. Cain also would eliminate the capital gains tax and cut others to enhance business formation.

Barack Obama will have better weeks than this. On the available evidence, however, the trend lines for politics and the economy are becoming clearer every day.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...6371811156235004.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop
 

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The problem with all of your doom and gloom for Obama is that we are way too far out from the elections to count him out yet. Some economists see the fourth quarter as showing big gains, as all of the problems from the Japan Tsunami subside, and even housing starts to pick up a bit. If we were a month or two away from November 2012, I would say put a fork in him Obama is done, but we are 17 months away. There is still plenty of time for the economy to recover and if it happens, that takes away his biggest negative.


Here is one take on the economy....

http://money.msn.com/exchange-traded-fund/the-economy-is-recovering-really-mirhaydari.aspx

If what he says comes true Obama will sail back in.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
What in his economic policy... today or in the past -would make you believe that it will suddenly and miraculously start to work now ?
 

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What in his economic policy... today or in the past -would make you believe that it will suddenly and miraculously start to work now ?
Did you read the article I linked to??? The recent down turn is what is hurting Obama. If that ends up being a bump in the road, he will come out looking very good. Up until these latest bad numbers things were looking better, if the numbers start looking good again, well, all I can say is Hail to the chief president Obama again. :laughing:

By The way my business is a very good economic indicator. We usualy lead the economy by 3 to 6 months. We are busier right now than we have been in years. Our current backlog will carry us comfortably into next year and if we don't get one single new order between now and January, we will have had our second best year....It is highly unlikely that we will not continue to get a lot more orders. I am also quoting like crazy. :thumbsup::thumbsup:
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
That's awesome, brother. Hang on to what you can.

There is no support for this statement. It is all fictitious.

I've used the product of hourly wages and aggregate work hours as a proxy for income in the chart above. Combined with higher household net worth and an easing of credit standards, these income gains should boost spending in the coming months -- setting the stage for a strong back-to-school shopping season. This should juice growth in the second half of the year; reluctant consumers provided a drag on first-half growth.
Did you catch that... back to school shopping will indicate a recovery is looming...

The consumer index is lower then it has been since the depression. 10 points off last years lows. 70% of the economy is based upon this index... and while you look around your world and see champion and cavior dreams... the vast majority of those making up that index are experiencing the exact opposite... and it's been getting steadily worse. Housing prices are lower today then the first quarter. The financial markets, especially lending, are doing the exact opposite of your articles claim. OPEC has just signaled no change in production based upon Iran, Venezuela, and Algeria saying "kiss our asses, America"(remind me again which of these countries we have sanctions against). The article states nothing of natural gas prices rising for absolutely no good reason other then Obama's energy policy of noncommittal, non-commitment. We have yet to see a single sustained increase in inflation as a percentage... which, of course... will directly effect the amount of expendable cash we "indexed consumers" have in our pockets... to buy school supplies so that the economy may signal "recovery looming".

You want a glimpse of a non-biased outlook... ?

Here you go...

http://www.businessinsider.com/bernanke-is-wrong-there-will-be-a-double-dip-recession-2011-6

http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-what-just-happened-at-the-opec-meeting-2011-6

In order for there to be a recovery in the next 6 to 10 months (after that it will make no difference as Obama will be in full reelection mode and no policy changes will be made) Obama will have to track to the center the way Clinton did -and actually put the economy first. Do you see this man doing this ? I don't. To do this would be to admit that he is incorrect... he is far to narcissistic to do this. He would rather lose the election satisfied with the outcomes he implemented to fundamentally change this country as we know it.
 

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Yup. Obama is hurting. Pawlenty is a twit. If he is the nominee, he won't carry MN. He screwed up our budget and busines climate big time. More businesses left MN under his tenure than any other AND he recruited Somalis to move here and gave them all welfare & some legal immunities. Not well liked here.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/pl_nm/us_usa_campaign_poll
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
CNN Poll: Obama approval rating drops as fears of depression rise
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...val-rating-drops-as-fears-of-depression-rise/

Obama's Approval Rating Dips to New Low
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-6084818-503544.html

Lack of GOP enthusiasm for candidates not unusual at this stage of the campaign
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20068392-503544.html#ixzz1Op6reVpv


"Obama's approval rating inched up 1 percentage point from May to 50 percent" Reuters... :laughing:
 

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Even after Obama's "worst" week and Pawlenty's "best," Obama still smokes him in a poll. Something to be proud of, I suppose.

:laughing:
 

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Some economists see the fourth quarter as showing big gains, as all of the problems from the Japan Tsunami subside, and even housing starts to pick up a bit.
Wait, aren't you referring to the same economist who said the expansion of TARP would boost the economy and produce millions of jobs? Aren't these the same dimwit assholes who said Barry's $787 billion stimulus would boost the economy and produce millions of jobs? Aren't these the same jagoffs who said that Obamacare would drive healthcare prices down and increase competition? Aren't these the same jagoffs who's advice led to Biden proclaiming astronomical job growth by the middle of last year?

And your still listening to them? Come on man, get your head out of your ass...
 

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Wait, aren't you referring to the same economist who said the expansion of TARP would boost the economy and produce millions of jobs? Aren't these the same dimwit assholes who said Barry's $787 billion stimulus would boost the economy and produce millions of jobs? Aren't these the same jagoffs who said that Obamacare would drive healthcare prices down and increase competition? Aren't these the same jagoffs who's advice led to Biden proclaiming astronomical job growth by the middle of last year?

And your still listening to them? Come on man, get your head out of your ass...
:nuts:
 

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Did you read the article I linked to??? The recent down turn is what is hurting Obama. If that ends up being a bump in the road, he will come out looking very good. Up until these latest bad numbers things were looking better, if the numbers start looking good again, well, all I can say is Hail to the chief president Obama again. :laughing:

By The way my business is a very good economic indicator. We usualy lead the economy by 3 to 6 months. We are busier right now than we have been in years. Our current backlog will carry us comfortably into next year and if we don't get one single new order between now and January, we will have had our second best year....It is highly unlikely that we will not continue to get a lot more orders. I am also quoting like crazy. :thumbsup::thumbsup:
Sorry to bust your bubble but what happened is that companies destocked their inventories during the crisis.

Recently there has been a small uptake in economy as companies started to restock their inventories.

Once the inventories have been restocked, it will simmer down.

Companies who are in an advance phase of your business are already feeling the down trend.
 

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Sorry to bust your bubble but what happened is that companies destocked their inventories during the crisis.

Recently there has been a small uptake in economy as companies started to restock their inventories.

Once the inventories have been restocked, it will simmer down.

Companies who are in an advance phase of your business are already feeling the down trend.
What is the advanced phase of my business??
 

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Wait, aren't you referring to the same economist who said the expansion of TARP would boost the economy and produce millions of jobs? Aren't these the same dimwit assholes who said Barry's $787 billion stimulus would boost the economy and produce millions of jobs? Aren't these the same jagoffs who said that Obamacare would drive healthcare prices down and increase competition? Aren't these the same jagoffs who's advice led to Biden proclaiming astronomical job growth by the middle of last year?

And your still listening to them? Come on man, get your head out of your ass...
Well I guess we will see who's head is up thier ass, come the end of the year. You seem to be damn sure of a total colapse of our entire economy. Time will tell. If you are correct as I have said many times Obama is gone, if what these economists say is true he is a hero, and the pubs will be scrambling. It will be interesting to see.
 

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Well I guess we will see who's head is up thier ass, come the end of the year.
No, we already have seen. The Keynesian economist have been predicting big job growth and economic turn around for over 2 years now, anyone putting the least bit of faith in what they say, has their head up their ass.

You seem to be damn sure of a total colapse of our entire economy. Time will tell. If you are correct as I have said many times Obama is gone, if what these economists say is true he is a hero, and the pubs will be scrambling. It will be interesting to see.
What part of "They have been wrong since the day he took office" evades you? :laughing: It's kind of becoming a joke listening to the media and economist say **** like: "Unexpected bad data" ""Shocking jobs report" etc, what the hell is unexpected? What is shocking? Real economist have been saying all along that what the administration is doing, hurts the economy, not helps it.

I guess people without basic calculator skills will just continue to be shocked.. :laughing::crazy:
 

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That's awesome, brother. Hang on to what you can.

There is no support for this statement. It is all fictitious.



Did you catch that... back to school shopping will indicate a recovery is looming...

The consumer index is lower then it has been since the depression. 10 points off last years lows. 70% of the economy is based upon this index... and while you look around your world and see champion and cavior dreams... the vast majority of those making up that index are experiencing the exact opposite... and it's been getting steadily worse. Housing prices are lower today then the first quarter. The financial markets, especially lending, are doing the exact opposite of your articles claim. OPEC has just signaled no change in production based upon Iran, Venezuela, and Algeria saying "kiss our asses, America"(remind me again which of these countries we have sanctions against). The article states nothing of natural gas prices rising for absolutely no good reason other then Obama's energy policy of noncommittal, non-commitment. We have yet to see a single sustained increase in inflation as a percentage... which, of course... will directly effect the amount of expendable cash we "indexed consumers" have in our pockets... to buy school supplies so that the economy may signal "recovery looming".

You want a glimpse of a non-biased outlook... ?

Here you go...

http://www.businessinsider.com/bernanke-is-wrong-there-will-be-a-double-dip-recession-2011-6

http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-what-just-happened-at-the-opec-meeting-2011-6

In order for there to be a recovery in the next 6 to 10 months (after that it will make no difference as Obama will be in full reelection mode and no policy changes will be made) Obama will have to track to the center the way Clinton did -and actually put the economy first. Do you see this man doing this ? I don't. To do this would be to admit that he is incorrect... he is far to narcissistic to do this. He would rather lose the election satisfied with the outcomes he implemented to fundamentally change this country as we know it.
Well I guess we wil see. Wasn't it you that claimed that we would have a major crash or at least a second dip by the end of last year? :laughing:

Your sources are a bit confusing though. The first of your "unbiased" source's articles does nothing but rail against the policies of the Obama administration and of the fed, while the second one (the story about the Opec meeting) seems to be saying in one breath that oil prices are headed up again, but at the end basiclay point out that Saudi Arabia is going to pump a lot of oil to make up for the countries that don't. everything I rhave read from other sources says that this last meeting could spell the end of OPEC, especialy under the leadership of a very unstable Iran. The normaly apolitical organization seems under the leadership of Iran, to want to be very political and that is putting a huge strain on the organization.

In the end, we will see what happens. If the economy improves, Obama will be undefeatable if the economy tanks again Obama is out. I am fine with waiting and seeing...I have no need to think I can see the future any better than anyone else can. Tell you what...If you prove to be correct, I will send you a six pack of your favorite beer. If I am correct you can send me a nice botttle of Piniot Noir from the Russian River Valley. Deal?? :thumbsup:
 

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No, we already have seen. The Keynesian economist have been predicting big job growth and economic turn around for over 2 years now, anyone putting the least bit of faith in what they say, has their head up their ass.



What part of "They have been wrong since the day he took office" evades you? :laughing: It's kind of becoming a joke listening to the media and economist say **** like: "Unexpected bad data" ""Shocking jobs report" etc, what the hell is unexpected? What is shocking? Real economist have been saying all along that what the administration is doing, hurts the economy, not helps it.

I guess people without basic calculator skills will just continue to be shocked.. :laughing::crazy:

Well I guess the part of they have been wrong since the day they took office that evades me, is the part where the economy is improving pretty well recently until this last set of bad numbers.

For most of the last many months the shock has been that jobs were improving better than expectations. You guys seem to completely discount the out of the norm issues that could have played a major role in these latest bad numbers. The tsunami in Japan had a major effect on production here and all over the world. Hell Japan's exports to the US were down 25% last month. The floods all over the country last month and continuing today put alot of people out of work. Gasoline prices definitly put the brakes on things but they are now easing.

You and preacher seem to want to say, hey look there was a bad set of numbers this proves that everything the government has been doing is all wrong. But it is just to soon to say that. Your oppinion and those of some economists may be that what the government is doing is wrong but others say it is right. We will see and as I told Preacher, I can wait for the results. I will offer the same bet with you as I did to Preacher. Are you game??
 

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Well I guess the part of they have been wrong since the day they took office that evades me, is the part where the economy is improving pretty well recently until this last set of bad numbers.

For most of the last many months the shock has been that jobs were improving better than expectations. You guys seem to completely discount the out of the norm issues that could have played a major role in these latest bad numbers. The tsunami in Japan had a major effect on production here and all over the world. Hell Japan's exports to the US were down 25% last month. The floods all over the country last month and continuing today put alot of people out of work. Gasoline prices definitly put the brakes on things but they are now easing.

You and preacher seem to want to say, hey look there was a bad set of numbers this proves that everything the government has been doing is all wrong. But it is just to soon to say that. Your oppinion and those of some economists may be that what the government is doing is wrong but others say it is right. We will see and as I told Preacher, I can wait for the results. I will offer the same bet with you as I did to Preacher. Are you game??
The uptrend that we saw was due to the stimulus money being spent. Just what the guys WITH calculator skills said would happen. Now that it's gone you're seeing the tipping towards a double-dip recession... The jobs and economy that the stimulus was supposed to affect were temporary, and most of it involved hiring government workers and going towards government programs, which consumed the money and didn't return any of it back to the economy.

Disasters happen to all presidents, and all economies. The difference with these disasters is that they happened during a propped up recovery, so they are going to hurt more for a longer period of time...because the resources to mitigate them are severely limited.

The DOW was flirting with 11k yesterday...

I am looking at buying 2 properties that are short-sales. I can get them for 30% of what they were worth when Obama took over...until the housing market comes back...there is no recovery. There will be no recovery until small businesses start hiring...small business will not start hiring until the regulatory climate is more favorable...if you think this administration isn't forcing these issues so they can push green energy and jobs into the economy...The economic downturn is what they want....in order to further thier agenda...sorry. :buhbye:
 

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Well I guess the part of they have been wrong since the day they took office that evades me, is the part where the economy is improving pretty well recently until this last set of bad numbers.
Doy ou ever actually read the info available, without the obamaman sunglasses? :laughing:

For most of the last many months the shock has been that jobs were improving better than expectations. You guys seem to completely discount the out of the norm issues that could have played a major role in these latest bad numbers. The tsunami in Japan had a major effect on production here and all over the world. Hell Japan's exports to the US were down 25% last month. The floods all over the country last month and continuing today put alot of people out of work. Gasoline prices definitly put the brakes on things but they are now easing.
Bullshit, the only thing that has improved since 08, is the media spin machine. Jobs are horrible, housing is horrible, manufacturing is horrible and the debt is horrible. Nothing has gotten better, from an economic stand point. And it isn't mean and VFP who are causing the problem.. :laughing:

But hey, feel free to keep kidding yourself. :thumbsup:
 

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Consumers consuming so that companies can consume in turn.
Well that is pretty vague. Do you know wether or not what we make is for consumer consumption, or what sector of consumer consumptionm we are involved in. I am pretty sure that the companies that we do business with would not be ordering in the quantity that they are ordering in, if they thought that their business would be down. The biggest problem for most of my customers since 2008 has been keeping inventory overly tight. If you don't have it to sell you lose the sale.

By the way just to clear things up for you, we do very little that ends up in the general publics hands, but one of our customers who makes high end turn tables (yes record players) is having his best year ever.
 
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